NATIONALS VS BRAVES

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Today’s matchup is between the Washington Nationals (22-29) and the Atlanta Braves (25-27). The Nationals have won 0 of their last 5 games & the Braves have won 3 of their last 5 games.

The Nationals are starting Jon Lester (LHP), on the mound who is 0-2 on the season pitching a 4.91 ERA, 4.41 FIP, .351 wOBA, K% of 17.7%, BB% of 8.1%, 88.7 MPH average exit velocity, and a 1.47 WHIP in 29.1 innings pitched.

The Braves are starting Drew Smyly (LHP), who is 2-3 on the season with a 5.95 ERA, 6.43 FIP, .359 wOBA, K% of 20.3%, BB% of 7.7%, 91.0 MPH average exit velocity, and a 1.30 WHIP in 42.1 innings pitched.

The Nationals are 20th in the Majors in Relieving Pitching (WAR) while the Braves are 17th.

On the hitting side, the Nationals have a .309 wOBA and a .318 OBP. The Braves have a .325 wOBA and a .316 OBP. The Nationals have 49 HRs this season while the Braves have 81 HRs.

This is a case of 2 bad pitchers & teams who can put the ball in play pretty consistently. I don't see much value in betting the line in this matchup but I like over 9.5 runs.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games.
  • Washington are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Washington are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Atlanta.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games against Washington.
  • Atlanta are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington.

PREDICTION

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OVER

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