Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds

PHILLIES VS REDS

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Today’s matchup is between the Philadelphia Phillies (25-28) and the Cincinnati Reds (23-28). The Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games & the Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games.

The Phillies are starting Vince Velasquez (RHP), on the mound who is 2-0 on the season pitching a 2.95 ERA, 4.95 FIP, .307 wOBA, K% of 29.4%, BB% of 14.4%, 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, and a 1.28 WHIP in 36.2 innings pitched.

The Reds are starting Wade Miley (LHP), who is 4-4 on the season with a 3.50 ERA, 3.22 FIP, .261 wOBA, K% of 18.9%, BB% of 6.1%, 84.3 MPH average exit velocity, and a 1.08 WHIP in 43.2 innings pitched.

The Phillies are 25th in the Majors in Relieving Pitching (WAR) while the Reds are 22nd.

On the hitting side, the Phillies have a .300 wOBA and a .308 OBP. The Reds have a .325 wOBA and a .321 OBP. The Phillies have 52 HRs this season while the Reds have 70 HRs.

Vince Velasquez is eventually due for some regression. His 14.4% BB rate is pretty high and Wade Miley is better than him in almost all stats measured except K%. On top of that, the Phillies are 26th in the majors vs Lefties striking out at just over 30%! The Reds are the much better hitting team as well so give me the Reds to win. Book it! 

  • Philadelphia are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.
  • Philadelphia are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games.
  • Cincinnati are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games against Philadelphia.

PREDICTION

0
REDS

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