Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

CUBS VS METS

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Today’s matchup is between the Cubs (37-27) and the Mets (32-24). In the last 10 games, the Cubs are (6-4) while the Mets are (6-4).

STARTING PITCHING:

The Cubs are starting Arrieta, Jake RHP, who is (5-6) on the season pitching a 4.97 ERA, 5.31 FIP, .339 OBP, .347 wOBA, .469 SLG, .808 OPS, K% of 18.7%, BB% of 8.9%, 91.6 MPH average exit velocity, and a  1.45 WHIP in 58 innings pitched.

The Mets are starting Peterson, David LHP, who is (1-5) on the season pitching a  6.32 ERA, 4.92 FIP, .356 OBP,  .371 wOBA, .503 SLG, .859 OPS, K% of 25.5%, BB% of 10.1%, 89.5 MPH average exit velocity, and a  1.51 WHIP in 47 innings pitched.

EDGE - Cubs

RELIEF PITCHING:

The Cubs are 4th in the Majors in Relieving Pitching. They have a 2.61 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, K% of 29.1%, BB% of 11.8%, and a 1.20 WHIP. 

The Mets are 1st in the Majors in Relieving Pitching. They have a 3.51 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, K% of 26.3%, BB% of 8.8%, and a 1.27 WHIP. 

EDGE - METS

HITTING:

The Cubs have a .317 wOBA, .314 OBP, .415 SLG, .729 OPS, 101 wRC+, & 88 HRs.

The Mets have a .306 wOBA, .313 OBP, .380 SLG, .693 OPS, 98 wRC+, & 58 HRs.

vs LHP pitchers on the road the Cubs have a .293 wOBA, .287 OBP, .394 SLG, .681 OPS, & 86 wRC+.

vs RHP pitchers at home the Mets have a .313 wOBA, .333 OBP, .371 SLG, .704 OPS, & 108 wRC+.

EDGE - For their splits, LHP/RHP the Mets are the better hitting team though overall than the Cubs. 

BALLPARK FACTORS:

The game is being played at Citi Field which has the 21 ranked Park Factor in the Majors. Where 100 is the league average this park has:

Park Factor 97, Runs Scored 94, OBP 97, 2B 86, 3B 62, HRs 107, & SO 107. 

BREAKDOWN:

Arrieta is a barely better pitcher than Peterson while the Mets have the hitting advantage, & a slight relieving advantage. My pre-line guess: -105 Mets | Actual Line -110 Mets

  • Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Chi Cubs are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against NY Mets.
  • Chi Cubs are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Mets.
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Mets' last 13 games.
  • NY Mets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets' last 7 games against Chi Cubs.

PREDICTION

0
METS

CONFIDENCE

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