Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers


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Today’s matchup is between the Arizona Diamondbacks (20-38) and the Milwaukee Brewers (30-26). The Diamondbacks have won 2 of their last 5 games & the Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 games.

The Diamondbacks are starting Matt Peacock (RHP), on the mound who is 2-1 on the season pitching a 4.50 ERA, 4.28 FIP, .291 wOBA, K% of 18.6%, BB% of 2.7%, 90.4 MPH average exit velocity, and a 1.07 WHIP in 28.0 innings pitched.

The Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta (RHP), who is 5-1 on the season with a 2.38 ERA, 3.01 FIP, .244 wOBA, K% of 37.2%, BB% of 10.8%, 87.0 MPH average exit velocity, and a 0.92 WHIP in 56.2 innings pitched.

The Diamondbacks are 25th in the Majors in Relieving Pitching (WAR) while the Brewers are 21st.

On the hitting side, the Diamondbacks have a .307 wOBA and a .311 OBP. The Brewers have a .292 wOBA and a .296 OBP. The Diamondbacks have 56 HRs this season while the Brewers have 64 HRs.

Freddy Peralta (Brewers) has looked very good this season and while Matt Peacock is no slouch, I think Peralta does enough to limit the Diamondbacks runs to get the Brewers the win. That said, I was expecting the line to be around -140 Brewers, and to see they are -200 the value is clearly on the Diamondbacks in this spot at +175.

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 7 games.
  • Arizona are 2-16 SU in their last 18 games.
  • Arizona are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Milwaukee.
  • Milwaukee are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home.
  • Milwaukee are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona.